Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year. The fighting has reached a stalemate on the ground, with both sides struggling to take territory. Growing divisions in Europe and the U.S. on continued military assistance to Ukraine may reshape possible outcomes. What are the prospects for a peace deal this year? What could the end of the conflict look like? How has the global energy system been reshaped by the war? What is the next stage for sanctions and the price cap on Russian oil and gas exports? How are sanctions and diverging government policies reshaping global energy markets?
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the latest Israel-Hamas war and a fraught U.S.-China relationship have hardened divisions on the global stage. As the post-Cold War order erodes, what will emerge in its place? Is the era of globalization and economic integration breaking apart? Will international trade unite or deepen a polarized global stage? What does global political volatility mean for companies, markets and capital flows?