CERAWeek 2025 Themes

Geopolitics

A fragmenting political order

Geopolitical competition is creating a more difficult global environment and complicating energy markets, trade flows, investment decisions, technology choices, and energy transition. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are raising risks and highlighting growing worldwide divisions. Rivalries, particularly between the U.S. and China, are reshaping international politics and economic relations and are complicating efforts to address critical global issues. Companies face increasing challenges in navigating this complex geopolitical terrain and preparing for new challenges. Companies must navigate complex geopolitical issues and prepare for new challenges.

Policy and Regulation

New policies and directions after the year of elections

The 2024 elections brought major global political changes, leading to significant shifts in energy, climate, and trade policies. In 2025, new governments and policymakers are set to implement significant changes to energy, climate and trade policy, with a focus on energy security and fostering domestic industries. Many countries are changing their regulatory regimes to accelerate infrastructure projects, but trade-offs and contradicting mandates are slowing the drive to meet energy and climate goals. Deregulation will be a theme in the United States; increased regulation, in others. Will permitting processes be reformed? New uncertainties are rising, from U.S. Supreme Court decisions to end the “Chevron Deference”, to policy changes both in the United States and globally. These developments are testing investment approaches for companies worldwide.

Trade and Supply Chains

Under increasing pressure

The globalized world of the last three decades is fissuring: the international economic order and trading system is under growing pressure as major powers compete for industrial leadership, particularly in technology and the industrial clean energy sectors. Governments are subsidizing domestic industries while putting up trade barriers to promote onshoring and near shoring of supply chains and to decouple and insulate their economies. Russia’s war in Ukraine has already transformed what was a global oil market into a divided oil market. The overall result of these forces is an increasingly fragmented and contested global trading system, especially for technology, minerals, and energy transition technologies. Will new trade barriers lead to retaliation that impact economic growth and further disrupt energy flows?

Oil and Gas: Navigating short- and long-term market uncertainties – and the “demand question”

Global Oil in a new future 

The future of global oil has become more uncertain: The downshift in Chinese consumption is changing the demand outlook, while the growth of U.S. and Western Hemisphere oil is rebalancing the global market. The war in Ukraine has turned a global oil market into a divided market. Even with energy transition, oil will continue to play a significant role in the energy mix for decades to come. To meet this demand as the world pursues lower emissions, companies are innovating with technologies and business models, while tapping new digital tools and AI to increase efficiency. At the same time, companies face new geopolitical challenges and global rivalries that are reshaping the sector’s investment landscape. Energy security has reemerged as a critical concern for governments, adding to the uncertainty for long term demand outlooks and the required levels of investment. 

Natural Gas: Global Commodity 

Natural gas consumption, which has grown by almost 60 percent over the last two decades, is headed for further growth in the years ahead. LNG, which has tripled, will continue to expand globally, replacing coal and supporting economic growth in Asia Pacific and developing. U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers will increase export capacity, with a need for better understanding of the economic impact on exporting economies. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced it to the role of a minor exporter. European consumption, which is down significantly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will be dependent on the future of European industry. In the United States, natural gas will be a major contender in assuring electricity reliability for data centers and AI. Managing methane and expanding infrastructure will remain priorities.

Power, Grid and Electrification

Policies, technologies, and systems for a coming surge in demand

The electric power sector is at the forefront of the global energy transition, with wind and solar technologies matured and now deploying at scale. The electrification of the energy system and the recent emergence of power-thirsty artificial intelligence systems point to substantial demand growth for the sector, which can pose challenges for what have been seen as set targets for the future generation mix. New technologies, partnerships and policies are emerging to help the sector meet the world’s need for reliable, affordable and low emissions electricity. But standing in the way are roadblocks in the form of permitting, capital deployment, and sourcing and supply chains, all slowing grid transformation and deployment of new generation capacity.

Mobility and Transportation

Differentiated speeds towards a low-carbon system

The transportation sector's electrification shows mixed. In China, electric vehicle sales are accelerating, and the country has swiftly emerged as an EV manufacturing and export powerhouse. In the US and Europe, sales growth has slowed, and legacy auto companies are paring back their EV ambitions. The rate of EV adoption over the next decade will be pivotal for the energy transition and for oil demand. As the market evolves and fuels for the mobility sector diversify, energy, power, auto manufacturers and technology companies will develop strategies to low-carbon fuels for transportation systems but will also have to grapple with major questions in terms of consumer demand and government policies.

Minerals and Mining

Sustainably supplying the raw materials for the new demand from the energy transition

Securing reliable supplies of critical minerals for energy transition is a top priority for companies and governments. Demand for these minerals is set to rise sharply, but accessing them is challenging due to high costs, regulatory hurdles, trade tensions, and local issues. China dominates many critical minerals supply chains for both mining and processing, which has made the issue a geopolitical flashpoint as other countries seek to diversify sources of supply. Diversification is proving difficult with an average of two decades required from identification of a new source to first production, making minerals both a necessity and a potential constraint on energy transition.

AI and Digital

Reshaping the future of production, management and consumption of energy

The rapid expansion of AI technologies is delivering a shock to the energy system and could well have transformative effects for the industry. Utilities and power companies are rushing to revise growth plans to respond to surging electricity needs from datacenters and energy transition demand. This is driving investment in renewables, advanced nuclear, and geothermal, but also pointing to a renewed role for natural gas. This new demand is forcing large tech companies into major players in the power sector. At the same time, generative AI and other digital technologies hold the potential to transform how energy is produced, managed and consumed and to help energy systems become more efficient and sustainable.

Managing Emissions

Innovating to deliver emissions reductions across energy and energy-intensive industries

Delivering emissions reductions in energy-intensive sectors such as heavy industry is one of the energy transition’s biggest challenges. Decarbonization technologies such as carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, methane reduction, materials recycling and others, as well as new industrial processes, are making progress, but the scale and speed of deployment remains modest. Early projects are starting to yield lessons that will be vital for technological advancement, reducing costs and scaling up these technologies. Strategies that align industry, policymakers and capital providers can help accelerate and expand decarbonization technologies. But there is the evident risk that some decarbonization policies can impose heavy costs that make companies uncompetitive and lead to shrinkage and deindustrialization.

Hydrogen and Low-Carbon Fuels

Moving from theory to execution

The hydrogen sector is moving towards real-world implementation, but not at the speed expected two years ago. Policy support and low-carbon mandates are underpinning the first projects that are creating the platform for the sector’s future growth while questions about markets and infrastructure are still being addressed. Companies are also investing in sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, and other low-carbon fuels to help reduce emissions in sectors that will be more difficult to decarbonize. What happens to policy support will be a critical variable in terms of lowering costs, improving technologies, and developing markets.