Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year. The fighting has reached a stalemate on the ground, with both sides struggling to take territory. Growing divisions in Europe and the U.S. on continued military assistance to Ukraine may reshape possible outcomes. What are the prospects for a peace deal this year? What could the end of the conflict look like? How has the global energy system been reshaped by the war? What is the next stage for sanctions and the price cap on Russian oil and gas exports?  How are sanctions and diverging government policies reshaping global energy markets?