The biofuels business is on the cusp of a potential boom. Integrated oil and refining companies have embraced biofuels as an investable low-carbon solution to serve hard-to-decarbonize sectors including aviation and heavy transport. These suppliers, spurred by policy incentives, have ambitious growth objectives—but scaling up the right feedstocks remains a challenge. Airlines and other large consumers are also transforming the demand profile with emissions targets based around biofuels commitments. The changing competitive landscape and economies of scale are driving integration from seeds to the end-user of liquid fuels. But how fast, in which markets and at what scale?
The quality of natural carbon sinks as used in carbon markets attract scrutiny when used as carbon offsets. Meanwhile, new approaches in soil sequestration through low-carbon agricultural feedstocks offer opportunities to offset scope 3 emissions in the agricultural value chain, with new investment from both agriculture and oil / energy companies. What is the state of science for estimating the carbon impact of these new agricultural technologies? What potential scale do these technologies have? What partnerships are needed to accelerate innovation in this area?