Oil markets are entering a new “normal” phase. Demand growth is cooling from the post-Covid surge and will be shaped by global economic growth, inflation, interest rates, China and a gradual but profound structural shift in the transportation fleet. While demand growth is cooling, non-OPEC supply growth is rising sharply, leading OPEC+ to reduce output to rebalance the market. At the same time, the war in Ukraine and outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has injected significant geopolitical risk into the market. How will these new oil fundamentals develop over the next two years?