Changing the Fuel Mix: Energy transition or energy addition?
Upstream Oil & Gas
Historically, energy transitions took decades. It took three decades for coal, oil, and gas each to attain a 10% share in the primary energy mix. For the last two decades, hydrocarbons’ share has remained about 80% globally, while consumption has increased by 40%. Hydrocarbons comprise about 65% of primary fuel for power generation today, similar to 2000. Renewables’ share has increased while nuclear’s share has decreased by about the same magnitude. Achieving net zero by 2050/2060 implies that hydrocarbons’ share in the primary energy mix will decrease to zero or near-zero in 30 years. However, decarbonization of the power sector is the only success story, emissions continue to increase in all other end-use sectors. What strategies might be implemented to accelerate the change in fuel-mix? What pathways can reduce transportation light and heavy oil use? How can we decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors? Why is enthusiasm for green hydrogen justified? What is the future of oil and gas use to 2050? How will abatement be achieved and in which sectors? Can developing countries leapfrog to carbon-free energy in a cost-effective way? Will changing fuel mix require changing lifestyles and consumer behaviors?