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- Meghan O'Sullivan
Energy crises, hot and simmering conflicts, and disruptive politics and geopolitics during renewable energy deployment may reshape both global security structures and the pace and course of energy transition. The concept of a just transition is entrenched in climate diplomacy, but what is just for countries in Eastern Europe or Asia that must upend their coal economies, or for Africa, if it cannot develop its gas reserves to reduce dependence on diesel and firewood? If investments in oil and gas contract sharply when driving and flying habits change slowly, will market power concentrate in Russia and the Middle East? Could political backlash on high gasoline and electricity prices rattle commitments to net zero? What can we learn from energy shortfalls affecting the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its impact on European cohesion? Should the concentration of inputs for renewable power, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) concern governments as national security risks?