The transition to a low—then zero—carbon energy system is clearly under way. As ambitions intensify with each passing year, the narrative becomes more certain. However, unexpected upheavals in the past three years and the consistent failure to meet some key transition goals demonstrate how the world’s energy dynamic can turn out much differently than expected. How are oil and gas players dealing with that uncertainty? For what future is the upstream currently investing? Have we underinvested? Will we? Is exploration even necessary, or do we already have all the oil and gas we need? What determines winners and losers if reality turns out to be different? Which portfolios deal best with these risks? How can complex enterprises make themselves flexible in chaos? What is the right risk approach and why? To which options should companies allocate capital—and how much? How do equity markets factor into what is possible?