The oil market in 2021—and beyond. The past five years have seen the oil price collapse twice, several pivotal changes in OPEC+ policy, capital discipline take root in the US upstream industry, and oil demand fall due to COVID-19. The energy transition is also moving beyond slow motion and investors are reassessing prospects for oil. These factors are fueling uncertainty about the future course of world oil demand, supply, and price trends. What are key variables shaping the oil market and how they could evolve in the years ahead?