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This year may well be a trader’s market in energy, currencies, equities, and even geo-politics where seasonal patterns could play a more pivotal role than usual. Walter Zimmerman, Chief Technical Analyst, United-ICAP, will detail why 2017 may deliver an environment where the petroleum complex searches for the upper edge of a wide swinging, multiyear trading range and suggest what previous years might be templates for the 2017 action. He’ll comment on the unprecedented volume and open interest that makes it difficult to differentiate from clear signal and cacophonous noise.
Lots of companies exited the energy trading picture a few years ago, but others have expanded and prospered. Hartree Partners has found ways to distinguish between the signal and the noise in paper and physical trading for crude oil, refined products, and even gas liquids. Jason Lemme, Managing Director, Hartree Partners, will give attendees some insight into how individual traders and trading houses can maintain the necessary discipline in wildly volatile markets. He’ll look at how the increase in global financial participation has and will impact futures and options’ action, as well as what might lie in store for markets that now often see liquidity stacked in the near months.
Twice this decade, Andy Lipow, President, Lipow Oil Associates, has accurately predicted RIN spikes that have gone on to be known as “RINsanity” in the fuels’ market. Perhaps no topic is more controversial in North American markets, thanks to the volatile prices for ethanol and biodiesel RINs, and the impact those price movements have for refiners, producers, and marketers. Now, there’s even serious talk about moving the point of compliance to the terminal, but advocates and opponents of that action have barely thought about the consequences. Mr. Lipow will give an exclusive forecast as to what might happen to RINs’ trading should EPA radically change or tweak policies, and elaborate on how refiners can stay ahead of an unpredictable EPA under President Trump.
After a short hiatus, it now seems certain that Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have a bright future as the Trump administration puts US infrastructure, particularly in the energy sector, back on the front burner. But a robust build-out or restructuring of new pipelines, storage facilities, and other elements of the oil, gas, and renewables’ segments is likely to coincide with a major overhaul of tax laws. Tim Fenn, Partner, Latham & Watkins, will take a look at the next stage in evolution for MLPs, and forecast what the landscape might look like for petroleum logistics. He’ll detail where consolidation makes sense and where shifting back to a normal corporate structure might be a better choice.
As demands for energy technology expand and evolve, so too are the means by which energy producers are seeking to meet those needs. Recent developments are prompting companies to take a broader portfolio approach to technology development—shifting from a largely internal focus and toward more open forms of innovation.
The world once looked to developed economies to chart a path to global sustainability. In 2017 that path looks more complex, with contribution levels determined nationally by emerging and developed economies; new leaders and policies elected in 2016 and 2017; and an increasingly active business community of energy consumers, producers, and financial players. Do these changes put the goal of sustainability at risk? Will these multiple new eras of sustainability bring faster and more robust change?
Ensuring resilience of energy infrastructure is a growing strategic and policy priority for the energy industry and governments. Threats to critical infrastructure are on the rise, ranging from cyber to physical attacks. How resilient is the current energy infrastructure? What are the threats—and opportunities—of the rapid adoption of connected technologies and artificial intelligence? What initiatives and practices by the energy industry are being developed to safeguard infrastructure and ensure resilience?
Global transitions in the energy sector usually take decades, with fossil fuels continuing to dominate the energy mix. The recent pace of technological change has surprised the industry—from unconventional resources to the rapid growth of solar PV. Technological innovation will be key to decarbonizing the global energy supply while also helping the energy industry remain profitable and competitive. This session will ask where will the next surprise innovations come from?
The political earthquakes of 2016 have upended conventional thinking about the global economy, while ironically brightening the outlook. With the expectation that the Trump administration will enact sizable fiscal stimulus, optimism has increased about US and global growth with recent improvements in the US stock indexes, interest rates, and US dollar. While IHS Markit believes that the balance of these trends will be moderately positive for global growth, political and policy uncertainties have also increased.
Knowledge management is increasingly central to the competitive strategies of energy companies, and a key driver of growth, cost optimization, and risk management objectives. Competitive advantage in the energy industry will be driven by the ability to access, harness, and utilize knowledge—both internal and external. While leveraging knowledge is becoming ever more critical and strategic, companies are also grappling with looming demographic trends such as loss of knowledge through retirement of baby boomers, information overload, inefficiencies such as stove piping of critical content, and protecting information assets.
How will the US energy policy change under the Trump administration, and how will these changes influence global energy markets and geopolitics? This dinner will cover a range of questions from regulations and infrastructure to federal and global politics.
New projects and new technologies are driving Eurasian oil production to new heights. Will this continue or are changes on the horizon, either from administrative decisions to collaborate with OPEC or financial constraints?
Sub-Saharan Africa has been a prolific region for industry-leading hydrocarbon discoveries, but with few projects being developed and low prices, exploration activity has sharply decreased. What strategies are upstream companies pursuing in response to the challenges they face? How are regional governments adjusting to today's reality in order to compete for tomorrow's investment?
Since 2014, the Canadian energy policy landscape has undergone dramatic transitions. Commodity prices have fallen, new governments have come to power, and a significant advancement of Canadian climate policy has occurred. This session will speak to these dramatic changes and what this may mean for the future of the Canadian energy and, specifically, the oil sector.
The Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) issued its draft report in December 2016 and will submit its final report to the G-20 in June. TCFD recommends a framework of voluntary disclosures to quantify financial risks and opportunities arising from climate change. What would adoption of the framework mean for energy companies and financial institutions? Is it possible for companies in different sectors with widely differing business models to provide consistent, forward-looking, “decision-useful” information?
While Asian oil and gas demand has sharply increased in the last few years, the supply-side outlook is mixed. Local NOCs have decreased upstream investments because of low oil prices, while many IOCs have left Asia to focus on core assets closer to home. As oil price recovers, how will companies and countries respond to attract new investments and partnerships? What role will technology play?
Despite record cuts in exploration spending, operators have continued to add critical new supply for Latin America: Large, new discoveries have been made in Guyana, Mexico, and Chile, and both Brazil’s presalt and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta are continuing to gain scale. Moreover, a new wave of access is expected, with Mexico and Brazil, in particular, offering large opportunities. Where will the next major discoveries be and how will companies expand the existing ones?
What does the future hold for the North American refining industry? The vantage point of refiners is key—specifically their location and market reach. How will global market conditions and domestic regulations impact market dynamics in the years ahead?
Deepwater reserves were expected to provide a significant source of production growth. However, since the oil price collapse, deepwater projects have been cancelled, delayed, and redesigned, impacting future reserves additions. Still, the deep water will receive substantial investment and new supplies will come onstream. How does this future deep water compare with the last 15 years? Deepwater leaders will discuss the transformation of the deepwater portfolio, the sustainability of new models, the growth outlook, and the competitor landscape.
Non-OPEC participation was critical to sealing the supply agreement between OPEC members and a number of non-OPEC countries, particularly Russia. Was this a one-off agreement or a signpost for new, enduring dynamics between key OPEC and non-OPEC countries?
Leveraging existing capabilities of E&P industry, CCUS has held promise as the bridge technology to a low carbon energy future for over a decade. However, only a handful of pilot projects are in operation. Several commercial deployments are anticipated to start up shortly—will the industry finally cross that bridge?
Access to capital was an essential driver of the great revival of US oil production. In today's market, is access to capital changing? Who will provide the capital for upstream investment in the years ahead?
Global oil demand has been buoyant because of lower prices. But big questions loom that will shape the fortunes of the refining industry in the years ahead. In addition to economic uncertainty, the future use of oil in transport is a big question. But there are also opportunities such as the upcoming change in bunker fuel specifications. We will discuss the dynamics that will influence success for refiners around the world.
IOCs have focused relentlessly on reconfiguring portfolios to be competitive in a lower-for-longer price environment. In some cases, IOCs have made wholesale changes in geographic focus, targeted asset types, and proffered return metrics and capital strategies. Many are also testing investments against carbon taxes at different levels. How much of the cost reduction is sustainable? How have portfolios changed? Where can larger E&P companies find scale? Are the new business models sustainable?
After two years of significant price decline, loss of revenue, and cost cutting, NOCs are now reevaluating their strategies for the medium to long term. Although price outlook is bullish after the OPEC agreement, there are significant challenges for the future, including lack of capital investments, competition for customers, oversupply in LNG/gas markets, and uncertainty for oil demand. How will NOCs respond to these challenges? Where do they see opportunities? What are the avenues for partnerships between IOCs and NOCs?
Although the driving force of oil cycles is the same—the reaction of price to demand and supply—the form and timing of the reaction differs with each cycle. But it would be notable from a historical perspective if the current era of abundant supply lasted only several years. The average duration of the past two eras of surplus is 15 years. However, market conditions point to the possibility of an end to the current cycle in the next several years. Will this be a relatively short era of surplus—or not?
Do sanctions work as a diplomatic tool? US and European energy and financial sanctions on Iran contributed to an international agreement with Iran to restrain its nuclear program, but US discord over that deal may lead to its dissolution. Could a new deal or sanctions be achieved with international consensus? Alternatively, US and European sanctions on Russia for its actions in Ukraine have not succeeded in changing Russia’s policies nor decreased its oil production. Have these sanctions failed? How might the Trump administration affect policy and US and European energy sanctions toward Russia and Iran?
The extreme focus of IOCs and NOCs on reducing costs, simplifying designs, and improving operating efficiency has forced service sector companies to rethink their own business models. Many sectors face considerable overcapacity that must be rationalized; many are engaged in mergers and alliances; and others view the industry's structural changes as an opportunity to increase their energy footprint. What are service companies doing to increase competitiveness? Which changes are sustainable? What will the competitive landscape look like in five years?
The Permian Basin is the world’s original “super basin.” It has produced billions of barrels of oil over its nearly 100 years. Now, after decades in decline, new technologies have rejuvenated the basin, but how far can it run? And how fast? This session explores the basin’s potential from a number of angles—geologic, competitive, technological, and infrastructure—to consider when thinking about its oil and gas future to 2020.
Upstream projects and assets struggling to meet economic hurdles in today’s low price environment are, in many cases, turning to lower supply chain costs, leaner designs, and new development approaches to improve their viability. What role can technology play in enabling these new design concepts and operating models, what impact are they having on industry capital and operating efficiency today, and will these effects be sustained as prices start to rise?
Ride hailing services like Uber, Didi, and Lyft are providing millions of new rides per day. This new “mobility as a service” market coupled with driverless technology could significantly impact the whole automotive ecosystem, and particularly oil demand. Will these new miles be gasoline or electric? How personal mobility changes and what powers this change will be critical to future oil and power demand.
New technologies, such as autonomous intelligence, additive manufacturing, and block-chain are radically altering traditional supply chain concepts. The industry is still in early innings of deploying these transformative capabilities. How might these technologies finally tackle the persistent challenges around complexity, transparency, resiliency, speed, and efficiency in the supply chain system? Join us for a primer on these emerging technologies and structured group discussion to explore their impact.
The digital oil field has not quite lived up to the promise the upstream industry laid out for it over a decade ago. How can (and is) the concept evolve to deliver on its full potential?
In less than three years, the International Maritime Organization will implement bunker fuel quality changes that could disrupt the refining, shipping, and bunker supply industries. How are companies and industries preparing for these changes? This session will explore the key issues surrounding this important industry topic and draw on extensive IHS Markit research.
How will ride hailing, electric vehicles, and driverless cars shape the future? We will discuss ideas about how these new drivers of change could transform the automotive eco-system—and what it means for oil companies.
Projections for global liquids supply over the next five to ten years are being changed by multiple factors, including new investment deferrals, changes in base production decline rates, new upstream openings, and fiscal term adjustments. The need to forecast global liquids production in the near term to longer term, and accurately label and understand the underlying strategic assumptions, both below- and aboveground, is more critical than ever. IHS Markit experts will discuss our assumptions, methodologies, and outlook for key countries.
With most Latin American countries experiencing declining liquids production, the opening of several upstream sectors to exploration is accompanied by changes to the competitive landscape. For the first time in decades, Latin American NOCs are not driving E&P. With aboveground risk still a significant obstacle to increasing foreign direct investment, how will regional governments and IOCs, whether partnered with regional NOCs or not, manage risk? What is the 10-year forecast for E&P activity and growth? Do regional NOCs have the financial ability to drive overall investment and exploration activity?
Supply of NGLs is expanding—and at a much faster rate than crude oil. Indeed, nearly one-third of global liquids demand growth in 2017 and 2018 may come from LPG. What are the growth markets—and what does it mean for NGL market dynamics?
Despite an expected additional modest price recovery in 2017, producer governments will remain under significant fiscal pressure in 2017, prompting further adjustments to fiscal and other E&P terms and conditions. These governments will also face competition from frontier countries now positioning themselves to capture new investment spending.
Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) are assigned to track a batch of biofuels from production to blending into gasoline and diesel. The value of RINS is volatile and can have a significant impact on wholesale and retail operations. What is current thinking about the value of RINS in 2017‒18?
The future of oil supply could be transformed if a number of “super basins” such as the US Permian were fully exploited around the world. There are significant challenges to achieving these sorts of results, chiefly aboveground risks and their mitigation. IHS Markit has identified super basins as those having already produced at least 5 billion boe with another 5 billion boe remaining, with multiple stacked plays, typically more than one source rock, available service sector, and infrastructure. We have identified 25 such global basins, plus an additional 24 “Tier Two” basins. IHS Markit experts will discuss methodology and results, and the implications for future investment.
In the past two years, the oil and gas industry has made drastic changes to reset the cost structure to be competitive in a lower oil price world. Some of the changes are sustainable, others are not. The IHS Markit Costs and Technology team looks at the new competitive dynamic, costs, among the major sources of supply growth—the US onshore, deep water, and the Middle East—which will have important portfolio allocation implications going forward.
After enduring shock and paralysis caused by the dramatic and sustained drop in commodity prices, upstream companies are now shifting their focus toward the pursuit of growth. However, with limited economic opportunities at this new price paradigm, competition for quality assets will be intense. Having come out of this down cycle with historically high levels of debt, companies will be challenged to execute a winning strategy and must counterbalance their asset strategy with their capital strategy. During this session, companies and transactions experts will discuss the challenges facing Independents, IOCs, and NOCs and their emerging strategies, as well as which companies are in position to execute. We will also discuss our IHS Markit outlook for the 2017 upstream M&A market.
The Permian Basin is a magnet for E&P risk capital because of its cost reduction, performance enhancement, and robust overall production outlook. But with the cost of quality acreage climbing, industry players are looking beyond the Permian.
As the global gas market enters a period of oversupply, the biggest buyers in Asia are adjusting their purchasing strategies. In addition to more aggressive price negotiations, many utilities that have been long-term customers of various national importers (e.g., NOCs) are looking to enter the global market and procure their own gas, creating new dynamics in a fast-changing market. How will domestic market reforms in areas such as infrastructure access and pricing impact future LNG procurement?
Despite the theoretical case for pricing CO2 emissions, carbon pricing regimes have not delivered strong results in practice. Going forward, China and Canada plan more use of carbon pricing, while the EU may be losing faith in the ETS and the future of US regional systems are also in question. What is the outlook for more effective pricing regimes and how might carbon pricing incentivize efficiency and new technology?
LNG market fundamentals point to a sustained period of looseness in the coming years due to large capacity additions, coupled with demand weakness from many existing markets. However, a significant number of countries do not import—nor have plans to import—LNG. What key risks and factors need to be addressed to bring more of these countries into the LNG market? How can project developers actively support their development?
Low natural gas prices have largely restricted North American production growth to Appalachia and associated gas. Low oil prices subsequently reduced associated gas production. Concurrently, delays to pipeline infrastructure expansions out of Appalachia have driven a tighter and more volatile natural gas market. With oil activity disconnected from gas prices and pipeline project in-service dates increasingly uncertain, how do gas buyers, sellers, and transporters manage through a less predictable and increasingly volatile market?
Natural gas is a growing component of Southern Cone’s energy mix. Significant and diverse supplies around the region remain constantly challenged with meeting rising demand. Recent changes in the regional energy landscape bring new challenges, requiring new strategies from countries and market participants. What is ahead for the regional gas markets following recent changes in Argentina and Brazil? What are the opportunities from the changing regional landscape? What role will LNG play and what are the signposts for future changes?
Europe is a major traded gas market with a growing requirement for imports, but where will these imports come from? Russia will remain a major supplier and LNG supply will grow, but will there be space to absorb the coming surge in LNG supply? How will Russian gas be transported to Europe? What is the potential for new suppliers to enter the market?
IHS Markit forecasts minimal growth in global exploration spending through 2020. While new discoveries outside onshore North America have been in decline since 2012, there are exploration “hot spots” and critical wells that will define the potential for new areas. As some companies pull back from conventional exploration, others see it as an opportunity. Executives will discuss their respective exploration strategies in the evolving business environment.
As the oil and gas industry develops strategies to meet the challenges—competing energy supplies, changing hydrocarbon demand, and increasing climate concerns—of the new energy landscape, new strategies for innovation are also needed. This panel explores how startups introducing new, rapidly scalable technologies are transforming the oil and gas industry. This panel will feature members from the 2017 class of Energy Innovation Pioneers.
As oil and gas producers in the Middle East assess products for major shifts in demand, what are their strategies for economic diversification, and what are the prospects for success? How critical are changes in domestic policies to reflect global energy prices, incentivize efficiency measures, and align national spending patterns with resource constraints? What are the risks for political unrest? Do regional wars and conflicts constrain the capacity of nations to manage their own domestic reforms?
What role will coal play in the global energy and steel production mix of the future? Recent events have driven renewed interest in the coal industry, highlighted by a wave of IPOs. Yet financing a coal project in today's environment is deeply complex and challenging. Markets remain volatile, highlighted by the recent unexpected dramatic price increases for premium coal. Meanwhile, removing regulatory constraints on coal is high on the agenda for the new Trump administration. What are the prospects ahead for coal markets, investment, and industry strategies?
India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Energy is key to this growth continuing. With aspirations to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas, provide 24/7 power to every citizen, and reduce carbon emissions, the Modi government is reducing bureaucracy and incentivizing international private investments in energy infrastructure. This panel will examine the entire value chain and ask what polices are needed to accelerate energy infrastructure investments. Can gas and renewables play a bigger role in India’s energy mix? Where can international companies invest and earn competitive returns?
In 2013–16 global exploration spend fell by over 60%, while new development projects were cancelled and delayed. While US activity is rising again in 2017, many regions anticipate lower investment. The lack of investment and projected shortfalls may result in lower production outlooks post-2020. What is the potential for a global liquids supply gap or a resurgence of US unconventionals, continued growth in Middle East production, and the resilience of liquids supplies from Russia and other locales?
In the second half of this decade, the global gas market is expanding significantly as a new wave of supply comes online: indigenous production, pipeline gas, and most notably LNG. Beyond this, many more projects are competing to supply new gas to meet expectations of rising long-term demand. However, there are a number of challenges to bringing these developments to FID, including oversupply concerns and financing challenges. This panel will explore the drivers behind successfully delivering major new international gas projects.
North American gas supplies remain plentiful, and market development efforts remains critical in the face of competition from renewables in the power sector, potential of cyclical weakness in export markets, and longer-term efforts to limit carbon emissions from all sources. This panel will explore the prospects for demand development, and how companies are addressing these challenges.
The late-2014 decline in crude oil prices affected the global chemical value chain’s regional competitiveness, demand growth, and future capital investments decisions. While lower crude oil prices provided competitive relief and improved profitability for the European, Latin American, and Asian petrochemical industries, in North America and the Middle East, lower crude oil prices meant lower chemical product prices, impacting profitability and capital spending. Whether ethane- or gas-based petrochemical investments in North America or coal- and LPG-based investments in China, these projects do not carry the same high-profile ROI that occurred from 2010 to 2014. From the chemical producer’s perspective, the energy landscape is transitioning along many fronts. This panel will explore how chemical companies will plan and build for growth as energy markets transition and evolve in the future.
The Atlantic traded gas hubs took about 20 years to have sufficient liquidity and depth to be a price reference point for gas and LNG traded over various forward time horizons. However, a truly liquid traded gas or LNG hub in Asia has yet to be established that would create a truly global gas market. This session explores current initiatives for LNG hubs in Asia and elsewhere and asks, Is it possible to establish a truly global gas market?
Gas once seemed the bridge fuel of choice. But concerns about methane emissions, pipeline leaks, fracking, and infrastructure lock-in have brought regulation and mistrust. What should be the role of gas in the future energy mix, and what are the key enablers and constraints?
The current low oil and gas prices have introduced new financing challenges for oil and gas upstream and midstream projects while potentially creating new opportunities. Although domestic US gas prices rose somewhat in 2016, they remain low and LNG oversupply concerns affect prospective liquefaction projects globally. With gas capex budgets being slashed and the sovereign financing capability of key gas-producing countries being reduced, this low-price environment may allow investors to develop strategies that evolve to finance tomorrow's needs and take on higher levels of risk.
Today, the changing role of robotics and the accelerating rate of adoption of emerging technologies like AI are changing work from the factory floor to the corner office. The energy industry has been facing the dual challenge of aging workforce and dwindling popularity—how will they deal with these new questions?
In an increasingly complex world, generating nearly 50,000 GB of data per second, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer the mechanism by which data and complexity can be unraveled to gain insight. Join us for an interactive discussion to both demystify AI & ML and explore how they affect your world today and how they might affect your world tomorrow?
Economic development and expanding energy access are driving Asian power demand, while energy affordability remains paramount to fuel choices, causing many Asian countries to rely on coal-fired power additions to boost supply. Some markets that traditionally relied on natural gas or hydro face challenges ramping up these fuels, creating a large opening for coal in countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Pakistan. Other coal-dependent markets, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China, continue to see coal as a critical fuel. In this session, we will examine the drivers and challenges for coal use in power.
Europe has transitioned further toward a lower carbon future than other developed economies. The power sector has seen the greatest transformation, adding over 130 GW of renewables and severely challenging the profitability of thermal assets. A number of governments are now implementing different forms of capacity support to ensure the security of power supply. Europe is also considering the options to meet the 2030 targets defined in 2015, but what are the options for Europe’s new power market design? What design is best suited to the low demand, high renewable power market that is developing in Europe? What future investment will be required to meet Europe’s climate goals and ensure security of supply?
Texas electricity markets are being transformed by technology, economics, and policy. The rapidly shifting landscape has broad implications for policymakers and stakeholders. This session will engage with energy leaders directly involved in shaping the future of the region’s power market.
Traditionally dependent on large hydro and thermal backup, Latin America has begun to diversify its generation mix. Renewables, including wind and solar, are becoming dominant in auctions across the region. Meanwhile fewer large hydro sites and their difficult development conditions mean the need for more flexible backup is becoming increasingly dire. New sources for dispatchable thermal, including shale, LNG, and offshore production, will play a key role. How will the region balance its vast potential for renewables with the need for additional stability and flexibility for its power grid?
New devices and connected technologies are transforming how customers interact with energy. These technologies, in combination with artificial intelligence deep learning, are opening new possibilities for consumers to interact and control home appliances, as well as manage energy. These same devices also provide companies with unprecedented visibility in how their products interact with users, electricity providers, and other home appliances. Will this convergence of energy, hardware, and technology lead to the breakthrough that finally enables consumers to become active participants in the energy value chain? How will this impact traditional energy providers? What are the emerging strategies and changing relationships among retail energy, telecommunications, hardware, and technology service providers?
Innovations reducing the cost of renewables and storage are enabling their increased penetration into existing markets, such as the power sector, as well as new markets, such as transportation. Low fuel prices further underscore the critical importance of innovation enabling startups to compete against incumbents. This panel explores how entrepreneurs harness innovation to navigate these challenges and bring new technologies and applications to the market. This panel features members from the 2017 class of Energy Innovation Pioneers.
Distributed energy resources (DERs)—including solar, battery storage, and load management technology—have been heralded as an inexorable evolution of the power grid, and a range of companies are experimenting with new business models built around these options. We are seeing the birth of a new wave of energy services companies (ESCOs) that have evolved substantially since the decades-old ESCO model. Still, most DER deployment remains dependent on policy support, such as net energy metering, leading to intensifying political debates over cost and value. This session will explore the policy, technology, and economic factors shaping the distributed energy landscape.
This Strategic Dialogue will examine the choices of approaches to drive power system development and electricity access in developing countries as a key facilitator of economic growth and poverty reduction. Government, developer, and donor stakeholders will discuss a range of issues, including making critical choices between state and private ownership along the supply chain, between fuels and technologies, and between grid-based and off-grid solutions, as well as the roles for interconnections and joint country projects.
North American power systems are responding in a variety of ways to the challenge of implementing the right mix of market forces and regulatory processes to shape power sector outcomes. This session will compare and contrast the evolution of power industry structures in North America.
The track record of building competitive electric generating plants involves financial losses and bankruptcy reorganizations. Over the past 18 months, competitive generators have lost half of their market value while power plants have been selling at a 50% discount to replacement costs. Yet, capital continues to flow into these businesses. Will the future be different based upon lessons learned, or is the winner’s curse an ongoing characteristic of the competitive generation business?
Renewables are projected to be the fastest growing source of new power generating capacity through 2040, accounting for half of the net new generation capacity added globally. This growth will be driven by continued policy support at a global level and technology cost reductions resulting in an increasingly distributed opportunity. Which markets offer the greatest growth opportunities? What will be the role of distributed generation and off-grid electrification in different markets? How will players capture an increasingly atomized opportunity?
The international steam coal market’s changing dynamics are moving closer to being in a position of rebalancing with higher prices. This session will focus on 2016’s high prices and how the market responded, drawing conclusions about the real proximity of a balanced market and on the market’s ability to respond to it when it comes.
Greater penetration of electric vehicles is transforming traditional paradigms for managing power demand. Because electric vehicles are mobile and have the ability to draw and inject power into the grid, utilities are being forced to rethink how they deliver power and the commercial mechanisms available to recover their costs.
The center of gravity of new nuclear power generation stations has moved to Asia, specifically to China, and the established fleets are aging. What does the future of nuclear power generation look like and where are the opportunities? Is there a big opportunity coming in nuclear plant decommissioning and what does that look like? Excluding China and India, will the growth come from countries that have little physical and institutional nuclear infrastructure? How does nuclear fare against cheap natural gas, deep decarbonization, or with technologies such as modular reactors? This session explores these dynamics for the future of nuclear generation.
Cost reductions in sensors, increased reliability in high performance networks, and advanced computational capability is enabling ubiquitous deployment of these technologies in the power sector. The potential for incredible opportunities to unlock and create new value for consumers, electricity providers, service companies, and OEMs is widely recognized. However, few have been able to realize the opportunities.
The end of the great commodity supercycle has left excess supply across the entire energy spectrum and set up a global race to the bottom featuring inter- and intrafuel rivalries with significant economic and geopolitical ramifications. IHS Markit experts will explore the key issues, rivalries, and price expectations for natural gas, oil, coal, and LNG globally.
China and India share many traits, including being the two most populated countries in the world, with economic growth outpacing the global average and large power markets undergoing market reforms to increase efficiency and address climate change. However, key differences include electrification levels, grid reliability, and approaches to controlling climate change, making it important to analyze each country’s market fundamentals. In this session, IHS Markit experts will share their insights on the different drivers leading to divergent routes to power market development and outline key risks and opportunities for market participants along the value chain.
Latin American faces several power market challenges, including weakening demand, meeting renewable energy targets, and advancing viable, new LNG-to-wire developments across the region. This session will focus on these issues and other emerging opportunities in the gas and power sectors across Latin America.
The US electric power sector’s transformation is underway. The confluence of rapidly evolving renewable energy technology, low fuel prices, and uncertainty in environmental and energy policy is creating an incredible risk landscape in North America's power markets. IHS Markit’s Energy experts will share their views on key federal and state policies and associated implications, technology advancements, and market fundamentals that will shape the power sector in the decade ahead.
The North American shale gas resource base continues to expand and drop in cost. Shale Gas Reloaded, IHS Markit Energy's reassessment of the North American resource base, concludes that 1,400 Tcf of natural gas is recoverable at a breakeven Henry Hub price of $4/MMBtu or less. This represents a 66% increase from our 2010 estimate that more than 900 Tcf could be produced at a $4/MMBtu breakeven price, after accounting for the 176 Tcf of gas produced during 2010‒15. This has profound long-term producer and consumer implications for North American and global natural gas markets.
This session delves into the unprecedented influx of new and maturing power sector technologies, such as advanced turbines, batteries, solar, and digital, that are making significant impacts. Gas turbines have increased in size, efficiency, and flexibility, while decreasing electricity production cost. Batteries are available for more applications as their costs fall. Wind turbines continue to improve by harnessing marginal lower-speed resources. Solar efficiency and capacity factors are also expected to improve significantly and competitively. Digital technologies derived from more available sensors, higher performance communication networks, and powerful analytics are reducing costs and improving performance for the entire power sector value chain.