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“Energy to me combines everything from geopolitics and how nations behave to technological innovation and entrepreneurship” Daniel Yergin

Energy’s Promise: Forging a New World

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U.S. grants first medal on energy to oil historian Yergin

U.S. Secretary of Energy Dr. Ernest Moniz today presented the first James R. Schlesinger Medal for Energy Security to Dr. Daniel Yergin, IHS Vice Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-Winning energy expert, in a ceremony at the U.S. Department of Energy.

The medal honors an “individual’s distinguished contributions to advancing our understanding of the threats, opportunities and energy policy choices impacting the domestic and international energy security interests of the United States through analysis, policy or practice.”

It will be presented annually to individuals outside the Department of Energy and will complement the existing Schlesinger Award for outstanding performance of a Department of Energy employee in advancing contributions of national importance.

Presenting the award today, Secretary Moniz said that Dr. Yergin “has made unique contributions to the energy sector debate. His singular influence over the discussion of energy – and public understanding of the history and future trends of energy is unmatched.”

“I am extremely honored to be presented with this distinguished medal by Secretary Moniz and the U.S. Department of Energy,” Dr. Yergin said. “The strengthening of the United States’ energy position through advancements such as the U.S.-led revolution in unconventional oil and gas production as well as the continued innovation and progress of renewables has been one of the major developments of this young century. The ever-growing importance of energy to our daily lives makes the work of the Department of Energy under Secretary Moniz’s distinguished leadership all the more vital and I am extremely grateful for this honor.

“The need to focus on energy security is continually driven home, whether by Middle East turmoil, the huge storms that have disrupted the Gulf Coasts and New York or cyber threats,” Dr. Yergin added. “All this reinforces the great focus on energy security that James Schlesinger clearly defined and represents part of his lasting contribution to the United States.”

Dr. Yergin is a world-recognized authority on international energy policy, politics and economics through his research and writings over several decades. His latest bestseller, The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World, has been called “a masterly piece of work” by The Economist and hailed by the Financial Times as “a triumph.” The New York Times said it is “necessary reading for chief executive officers, conservationists, lawmakers, generals, spies, tech geeks, thriller writers,” among many others.

He is a Pulitzer Prize winner for his book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, which has been translated into 19 languages. Other significant works by Dr. Yergin include Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy; Russia 2010; Energy Future; and Shattered Peace. Both The Prize and Commanding Heights were made into PBS/BBC television series.

Dr. Yergin earned his B.A. from Yale University and his Ph.D. from Cambridge University in England, where he was a Marshall Scholar. Prior to founding Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which was acquired by IHS in 2004, he taught at the Harvard Business School and the Harvard Kennedy School of government. He is a member of several organizations, including the National Petroleum Council and the U.S. Secretary of Energy’s Advisory Board. He is a trustee of the Brookings Institution and a director of the Council on Foreign Relations and the New America Foundation. He is also on the advisory board of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative.

U.S. grants first medal on energy to oil historian Yergin

CERAWeek 2014 – Wednesday Summary

Wednesday at IHS CERAWeek 2014 began as delegates chose among several concurrent Strategic Dialogue breakfasts on a variety of subjects, including energy innovation, Russian gas; Southeast Asia gas and power; the Southern Gas Corridor: from the Caspian to Europe; shale gas and the environment, residential and commercial natural gas consumption; and Africa oil and gas trends.

Mary Barcella, IHS Energy Director, chaired the Wednesday morning Strategic Dialogue onResidential and Commercial Natural Gas Consumption: Rethinking Regulation Post the ‘Shale Gale.’” Panelists included Dave McCurdy, President and CEO, American Gas Association; Keith White, Vice President of Business Development and Energy Supply/Chief Strategic Officer, Northwest Natural Gas; Andrew Sunderman, Chief Financial Officer, Direct Energy; Colette Honorable, President, National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners and Chairman, Arkansas Public Service Commission; and Paula Gant, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Oil and Natural Gas, US Department of Energy. Panelists discussed the need for new energy policies and regulation, new technologies, and infrastructure investment to bring the benefits of the unconventional natural gas revolution to more residential and commercial consumers.

All delegates convened as IHS Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin kicked off the main events of Gas Day by welcoming Joe Kaeser, President and CEO of Siemens, to IHS CERAWeek. In his Opening Gas Address, Mr. Kaeser contrasted what he perceived as the successes of energy policy in the United States with the failures of that in Europe. Throughout his speech, Mr. Kaeser praised US energy innovation, and in the subsequent question and answer session, Mr. Kaeser drew parallels between US energy advancements and the innovative culture of Siemens. He repeatedly hailed the United States as “the place to be,” owing to the country’s willingness to pursue new opportunities, and warned that Europe will need to become more opportunistic in order to continue innovating.

Michael Stoppard, IHS Energy’s Chief Strategist for Global Gas, chaired the Global Gas Plenary, joined by Chris Finlayson, Chief Executive Officer, BG Group; Rob Franklin, President, ExxonMobil Gas & Power Marketing Company; and Sam Laidlaw, Chief Executive, Centrica PLC. The panel expected significant growth in gas demand in the next several years, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, with gas likely to replace coal as the second largest energy source after oil in the coming decades. The panel discussed the challenges of maintaining investment in supply under uncertainty and managing costs as demand grows rapidly. Liquefied natural gas trade, which in the view of the panel will grow faster than overall gas demand, was a focus of the discussion. Panelists also touched upon the issues in replicating shale gas development outside the United States, and the difficulties of and potential solutions to stagnant demand and growing import dependence in the European market.

The late morning Strategic Dialogue sessions included discussions on energy security, energy price reform in emerging markets, the new China energy reforms, LNG trading, stakeholder engagement, North American gas supply and demand, and mitigating operations risks.

James Burkhard, Vice President, Head of Global Oil Market Research and Energy Scenarios, IHS, chaired the Strategic Dialogue on “Energy Security: Redefining the Boundaries.” Panelists included Robbie Diamond, President and CEO, Securing America’s Future Energy; Jack Gerard, President and CEO, American Petroleum Institute; David Goldwyn, President, Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC; and Frank Verrastro, Senior Vice President and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy and Geopolitics, Center for Strategic and International Studies. The panel agreed that US unconventional oil and gas developments are a game changer that requires reevaluation of national energy policies. This debate is only beginning, but all panelists agreed that energy abundance presented a great opportunity. Their consensus was that although it has many complex variables and many uncertainties, the energy policy debate is vital to the future of the country.

Xizhou Zhou, Director, China Energy, IHS, chaired the Strategic Dialogue on “China’s New ‘Third Plenum’ Reforms: What It Means for Chinese and Global Energy.” He was joined by Jing Ulrich, Managing Director and Vice Chairman of Asia Pacific JP Morgan Chase & Co.; Sun Xiansheng, President, CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute; and Ping Lee,President and General Manager, BG Group–China. The panel discussed the implications of the reform roadmap set during the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18thCongress on China’s economy and energy sector.

Andrew Slaughter, Vice President, Upstream Research, IHS, chaired the Strategic Dialogue on “License to Operate: The Growing Importance of Stakeholder Engagement.” Joining Mr. Slaughter was D. Clay Bretches, President, Sendero Midstream LLC; Nate Teti, Head of Sustainability, Development and Production North America, Statoil; Paul Jeakins, Commissioner and CEO, British Columbia Oil and Gas Commission; and Keryn James, CEO, Asia Pacific Environmental Resources Management. The panelists agreed that early and open communication is vital to successfully engaging with stakeholders, those affected by oil and gas projects. In addition, ongoing commitment from regulators and operators to share and disseminate information on best practices and to encourage partnerships in communities where exploration and production companies operate helps build positive stakeholder relations and leads to project success.

Ernest Moniz, United States Secretary of Energy, delivered the Wednesday lunch keynote address. Dr. Moniz said that the national energy strategy is working both economically and environmentally, and that the Department of Energy (DOE) would continue to support US fuel sources and advance US technology while pursuing a low-carbon future. He highlighted five areas of focus for the DOE: the implications of the hydrocarbons boom for policy and infrastructure, the uncertainty around trends in future demand, low-carbon technology, the need to adapt to maintain security of supply, and the need to invest in the energy workforce of the future.

In the afternoon, IHS Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin moderated the Natural Gas Dialogue on “The Future of the Shale Gas Revolution.” He was joined by John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado; Fred Krupp, President of the Environmental Defense Fund; and Marvin Odum, President of Shell Oil Company. Dr. Yergin asked the panel to assess the state of the shale gas revolution today and its prospects in the coming decade. The panelists discussed the need to balance the economic benefits of shale gas development with environmental stewardship, the challenges in expanding the shale revolution internationally, and the importance of trust in stakeholder engagement.

Later in the afternoon, delegates chose between two concurrent plenaries on developments in global gas and in North American gas.

Shankari Srinivasan, IHS Vice President and Head of Research and Consulting, Power, Gas, Coal, Renewables—EMEA/APAC, chaired the Wednesday afternoon Plenary “Future of Global Gas: The New Map.” The session covered how recent developments in the discovery and development of natural gas have changed the industry by allowing access to previously unknown or undeveloped resources, the ripple effects these developments have on the supply chain, and the challenges the industry faces. She was joined by Peter Coleman, CEO and Managing Director, Woodside Energy; Jean-Marie Dauger, Executive Vice President, GDF Suez; and Salvador Namburete, Minister of Energy, Mozambique.

Bob Ineson, Managing Director, North American Natural Gas, IHS, chaired the plenary on “Changing Landscape of North American Gas.” Mr. Ineson was joined on the panel by Gregory Ebel, President and CEO, Spectra Energy, President and CEO, Spectra Energy Partners; Lamar McKay, Chief Executive, Upstream, BP Plc; and Colin Parfitt, President, Supply and Trading, Chevron Corporation. The panelists shared optimism about the North American gas resource base and the constant innovation taking place in exploration and production, while acknowledging that additional infrastructure is necessary to ensure enhanced reliability of pipeline operations. Regulatory obstacles still impede the progress of major projects, and stakeholders need to find ways to streamline the regulatory process.

Daniel Yergin, IHS Vice Chairman, welcomed the panelists to the afternoon’s plenary on “The New Global Competitiveness” for analysis of energy’s in determining national economic advantage. Andrew Liveris, President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of The Dow Chemical Company and Harald Schwager, Member of the Board of Executive Directors of BASF SE described the significant impact of both regional energy prices and national energy policies on their companies’ investment decisions. Takayuki Sumita, Japan’s Director-General for Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources, offered the perspective of a government attempting to lower energy costs in order to maintain industrial competitiveness. John Larson, Vice President of IHS, described IHS studies confirming that divergent energy policies and resources have spurred employment and economic growth in the United States but have retarded both in Germany. All of the panelists agreed that the US unconventional oil and gas revolution has had a major impact on competitive dynamics among nations.

Wednesday’s agenda concluded with six concurrent Insight Dinners, designed to allow delegates to interact informally in a relaxed setting with industry experts and senior officials. Each dinner featured thought-provoking remarks by distinguished guests, followed by moderated discussion and question-and-answer sessions with dinner participants. The wide-ranging topics included redefining leadership in a world of change; threats to global economic recovery; new dimensions of risk: cyber security, terrorism, and social turmoil; the energy innovation dilemma; securing public trust in a hyperconnected world; and Africa’s energy future.

CERAWeek 2014 – Wednesday Summary

The Great Revival of North American Supply: Tight Oil and Oil Sands – Video

Since 2010 and 2013 North American oil supply from oil sands and tight oil has grown 2.7 million bpd. Between now and the end of this decade we expect tight oil and oil sands will grow over 4 million bpd more.
Hear the answers to pressing market issues from Jackie Forrest: Is there room for both oil sands crude oil and tight oil in North America? How can the future oil supply be absorbed?What’s the likely balance of North American and offshore crudes? Will continental oil demand increase?

Insights from this interview come from IHS Oil Market Services, North American Crude Oil Markets Service, and North America Supply Analytics. For additional information please contact us

The Great Revival of North American Supply: Tight Oil and Oil Sands – Video

CERAWeek 2014 – Thursday Summary

Thursday is Power Day at IHS CERAWeek. The Strategic Dialogue breakfasts offered this year included an Africa ministerial dialogue on expanding power on the continent; coastal China’s power supply and environmental concerns; the global outlook for nuclear power; and examinations of government policies and power market dynamics in Texas, in Europe, and in Latin America.

Jone-Lin Wang, Vice President, IHS Energy, chaired the Thursday morning Strategic Dialogue breakfast on “The Future of Global Nuclear Power.” The session addressed global opportunities and technological developments within the nuclear industry. Sandy Rupprecht, Senior Vice President, Westinghouse; Christopher Colbert, Chief Operating Officer, NuScale Power; John Gilleland, Chief Executive Officer, TerraPower; and Mujid Kazimi, Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Mechanical Engineering and Director at the Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, discussed advances being made in new nuclear reactor technologies and success factors that countries can follow in helping to establish a strong nuclear industry.

At the morning’s opening North American Power Plenary, Lawrence Makovich, Chief Power Strategist at IHS, chaired a distinguished panel with Andrés R. Gluski, President and CEO of The AES Corporation; Nick Atkins, Chairman, President, and CEO of American Electric Power; and Lynn Good, President and CEO of Duke Energy. The panel discussed the challenges facing the North American power business and stressed the importance of grid reliability during peak demand events (such as the recent polar vortex that brought unusually cold weather to North America) in the face of coal retirements and the buildup of intermittent renewable supply. Panelists also agreed that infrastructure development and technological advances were important for meeting customer needs and that the pace of implementation will be a key factor for the industry.

Jone-Lin Wang, Vice President and Head of Research and Consulting, Power, Gas, Coal, Renewables—Americas, IHS, chaired a second Thursday morning plenary session on “The Global Power Challenge.” She was joined by Leonhard Birnbaum, Member of the Board of Management—Markets, Services, E.ON; Dawn Farrell, President and CEO, TransAlta Corporation; and Jim Hughes, Chief Executive Officer, First Solar. The panelists discussed how utilities can deliver the services their customers want while contending with low energy prices in deregulated power markets, the withdrawal of government policies supporting renewable energy, and the changing risk profile of large utility projects.

Lawrence Makovich, IHS Chief Power Strategist, chaired one of seven concurrent Strategic Dialogues held midmorning. The panel on “Power Supply Cost Recovery: Bridging the Missing Money Gap” included Bill Mohl, President, Entergy Wholesale Commodities; Thad Hill, President and Chief Operating Officer, Calpine; Richard Doying, Executive Vice President of Operations, Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc.; and Terry Boston, President and CEO, PJM Interconnection. The panel focused on how low wholesale power prices are leading to “missing money” in the cash flows of power producers, which results in too few new power plants, too many plant retirements, and thus more electricity reliability issues. The panel concluded that capacity markets are needed to help solve this problem. However, the panel also discussed other factors at play including distortionary tax policies, environmental regulations, transmission and gas supply constraints, and investment lead times. Overall, there was some optimism that the “missing money” problem will improve.

Sharon Reishus, Senior Director, North American Power, IHS, chaired the Strategic Dialogue on “Electric Policy Agenda: Market Rules and GHG Management.” Cheryl LaFleur, Acting Chairman, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Colette Honorable, President, National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, and Chairman, Arkansas Public Service Commission; and Raymond Kopp, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Climate and Electricity Policy Resources for the Future, shared their views on these topics. The panelists discussed regulatory and policy challenges facing the US power sector, including the carbon pollution regulation for existing sources, reliability standards, technological innovations, and natural gas revolution in the North America—complex issues that, the panelists agreed, will shape the future of the electric power sector. The task is to create smart and flexible policies that do not impede the deployment of energy sources and technologies, but instead support it.

Another Strategic Dialogue was chaired by Jim Thompson, Director, IHS Coal and IHS Coal Markets, “Global Coal: Divergent Paths.” Joining him were Howard Gatiss, Chief Executive Officer, Coal Marketing Company Ltd.; Benjamin Asher Jones, Manager Coal Acquisition, Tennessee Valley Authority; David Price, IHS Energy Senior Director, Global Steam Coal Advisory Service; and James Stevenson, IHS Energy Director. The discussion focused on coal market trends in the United States and globally as well as on some of the logistical challenges to meeting abrupt or short-term increases in coal demand. Strong growth for coal imports in major coal markets such as the United States, Europe, and China is unlikely in the future, but other countries in Asia as well as Morocco and Turkey have significant growth potential.

Daniel Yergin, IHS Vice Chairman, welcomed Gina McCarthy, the Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to deliver a keynote address during Thursday’s luncheon. Administrator McCarthy was appointed to lead the EPA by President Barack Obama and was confirmed in July 2013. Her keynote address focused on the Obama Administration’s goal of reducing US carbon emissions. Throughout the address, Administrator McCarthy emphasized the EPA’s commitment to continuous dialogue with the energy industry, state regulators, and the environmental community as it formulates emissions standards for existing power plants. She stressed that EPA intends to provide state-level regulators with as much implementation flexibility as possible and intends to ensure that new regulations do not compromise the reliability of the electric power system.

IHS Energy Chief Power Strategist Lawrence Makovich chaired the Global Power Keynote Dialogue with Cheryl LaFleur, Acting Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The discussion began with lessons learned from the polar vortex that swept across the United States this winter, which put stress on the increasingly interconnected gas and power systems. Other issues covered included the challenges associated with early retirements of coal and nuclear generating capacity, creating incentives for needed interstate transmission infrastructure, and FERC’s more active role in the civil prosecution of market manipulation. Acting Chairman LaFleur expressed the importance of working with industry to meet energy security and environmental goals, and noted that “a voluntary solution is always a little faster than a regulatory one.”

IHS Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin chaired the Thursday afternoon plenary on “Customer Needs and Wants,” joined by four distinguished panelists. Sharon Burke, Assistant Secretary for Operational Energy Planning and Programs at the US Department of Defense, discussed the enormity of Defense Department energy usage and cost as well as notable advancements in efficiency. Badar Khan, President and CEO of Direct Energy, gave an inspiring presentation on how modern communication and real-time data are keeping customers apprised of their energy usage and leading to energy savings. Schneider Electric Chairman and CEO Jean-Pascal Tricoire discussed his company’s principles for customer satisfaction—“cheap, safe, green”—and said that technology and innovation will driver greater energy efficiency. In a discussion on cyber security, the panelists agreed that massive investment in research and development is required, along with a thorough identification of vulnerabilities.

For the day’s last gathering, five of the world’s leading technologists, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), discussed their current research and the systems and tools that will reshape the energy future. At the dinner session “A Glimpse Over the Horizon: Energy Game Changers from the MIT Energy Initiative,” Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of IHS, joined Robert Armstrong, Director of the MIT Energy Initiative; Angela Belcher, the W.M. Keck Professor of Energy; Vladimir Bulovic, Fariborz Maseeh Professor of Emerging Technology and the MIT School of Engineering’s Associate Dean for Innovation; Donald Sadoway, John F. Elliott Professor of Materials Chemistry; and Alexander Slocum, the Neil and Jane Pappalardo Professor of Mechanical Engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow. All from the MIT Energy Initiative, the speakers collectively account for an impressive 200 patents and 14 start-ups, with many of their innovations rooted in solving the problems of the energy industry. Although the research discussion covered a broad range of topics, a central theme was the importance of the fresh perspectives provided by MIT students in stimulating and evaluating research.

CERAWeek 2014 – Thursday Summary

A Glimpse Over the Horizon: Energy Game Changers from the MIT Energy Initiative

Insights by some of the world’s leading energy technologists on the frontiers of innovation, transformation, systems and tools that will reshape the energy future.

View the full session.

A Glimpse Over the Horizon: Energy Game Changers from the MIT Energy Initiative

Highlights from CERAWeek 2014: