The biofuels business is on the cusp of a potential boom. Integrated oil and refining companies have embraced biofuels as an investable low-carbon solution to serve hard-to-decarbonize sectors including aviation and heavy transport. These suppliers, spurred by policy incentives, have ambitious growth objectives—but scaling up the right feedstocks remains a challenge. Airlines and other large consumers are also transforming the demand profile with emissions targets based around biofuels commitments. The changing competitive landscape and economies of scale are driving integration from seeds to the end-user of liquid fuels. But how fast, in which markets and at what scale?
Policy is driving the liquid fuels business to invest in lower-carbon intensity products and processing. As a result, the refining and agricultural industries have begun integrating to form new supply chains. What will be the impact on agriculture? Are Iowa, Mato Grosso and Saskatchewan the “new” Permian Basins? How will two industries with significant size differences and very different commodity cycles manage risk? Will emerging ventures make headway in cultivating new feedstock for advanced fuels?