Since 2012, global crude quality has shifted to a lighter slate. Sour crudes will become tighter in the near term due to combined effects of the collapse in Venezuelan output, tumbling Iranian exports, Vienna Alliance cuts, and Canadian curtailments. The increase in US shale output has added a huge volume of light barrels to the market. These opposing trends may continue for several more years, reshaping the global crude oil quality landscape. How will crude importers be impacted by changes in global trade patterns? Can refiners easily absorb new crude qualities?
The energy transition is pressuring downstream oil companies to simultaneously reduce emissions and compete in a slowing—and perhaps declining—product demand market. Across the globe, climate-related policies, regulations, and societal pressures are seeking to reduce carbon emissions from transportation fuels and the oil supply chain. How are environmental regulations impacting refining profitability and the outlook for long-term investments? What are the right strategies—such as more petrochemical integration, advanced biofuels investments, retail market integration—to address expected market changes? How are consumers expected to respond to the cost of new lower-carbon fuels needed for an energy transition?