COP25, held in Madrid in December 2019, failed to define the rules to implement the Paris Accord. With the United States and Brazil withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and others increasing coal-fired generation, the 2015 political consensus underlying the Paris according is shattering. Still, some argue that environmental activism seen in municipalities and non-federal entities around the world—and the focus on sustainability emerging in the financial sector—represent a thousand points of light. How can industry, the financial sector, and environmental activists most effectively support a sustainability agenda that is itself sustainable?
An intense national debate on the politics of energy and climate change is unfolding in the runup to the 2020 US election. Cities and states have taken measures such as net-zero carbon emissions and renewable portfolio standards. Some candidates argue for a ban on fracking and against natural gas. Others point to the transition from coal to natural gas as the key driver of US emissions reductions. Can the US achieve coherent strategies on energy and climate? What are the implications for US energy security and for US market leadership during the energy transition?
The shale revolution, digitalization, and new technologies have created a world of oil and gas abundance. Global supplies, new investments (especially in gas), and current weak demand linked to the coronavirus have driven down oil and gas prices. Increasing international pressures to redress climate change and reduce emissions are also creating competition to become least-cost producers. How are governments rising to these challenges to promote competitiveness? How are they managing the dual challenges of producing energy and reducing emissions? What are the related downstream and power sector implications?
Most Latin American countries, under left and right governments, have experienced political or economic turmoil over the past months. These tensions often mirror international developments such as Brexit. In the energy sector, new technologies offer promise, but can also affect market clearing prices that affect, for example, the viability of power systems or upstream investments. What measures can be taken to address income inequality or the ambitions of an aspiring middle class? To meet the challenges of energy transition? To help Latin Americans feel secure about the future?
Strong production and record numbers of FIDs in 2019 create an outlook for sustained low natural gas prices. Demand trends, especially in Asia, will be key to shaping the international market for gas. Depending on the part of world, gas has been seen as either a lower carbon fuel relative to coal and critical to reducing emissions, or as yet another fossil fuel. How do major producers and consumers of natural gas shape policy to optimize their national interests? How do producing states boost their international competitiveness? How will natural gas play into the fuel mix of the future—and into the race to reduce emissions?
Despite the international recognition by over 50 countries of Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president and a massive ratcheting up of US sanctions, the Maduro government remains in power in Venezuela. The United States has responded with yet harsher sanctions, and the Guaido government has called for an end to dialogue and compromise. Do the United States and the international community need to reassess strategy on Venezuela? What tools exist to achieve a political transition? Are sanctions enough? What are the plans for “the day after”?
Europe’s Green Deal commits Europe to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050—and by 2030 to cut GHG emissions by 50–55%. Each EU member will develop targets and legislation to achieve these ambitions. Many companies operating in Europe have similarly adopted net-zero targets. Will financial and technical realities support these goals? At what economic, political, and social costs? How must public and private sectors work together? With Europe accounting for less than 10% of global GHG emissions, what must be done to have a meaningful impact on climate change?
Innovation is cutting the costs of wind, solar, storage, and efficiency. It lies behind the hopes for commercially viable carbon extraction, hydrogen, and fusion. To deliver impact, innovation must achieve transformative scales. Innovations are expected to advance economic growth, ensure secure access, generate reliable supplies, and reduce emissions and costs. How do governments, scientists, industry, and investors prioritize among these goals? What are the critical points of innovation to mitigate risk and open market opportunities?
In 2050, Africa will have the world’s largest number of young people, making up nearly twice the young population of South Asia and Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Such shifting demographics will make sustainable development in Africa critical to global economic growth. How will we define security in a world where climate change may disrupt global manufacturing and supply chains? Will current trends toward bilateral trade agreements undermine the global trading system? How might bilateral trade confrontation spill into global, regional, and national stability and security?