The energy transition is pressuring downstream oil companies to simultaneously reduce emissions and compete in a slowing—and eventually declining—product demand market. Across the globe, the results of the pandemic are only accelerating climate policy, investor focus, and societal pressure to address carbon emissions from transportation fuels and the oil supply chain. How will refining profitability and investment prospects be affected by this changing downstream landscape? What is the role of biofuels, petrochemicals, retail, and other integration options in downstream strategies? How are consumers expected to respond to the added cost of lower-carbon intensity fuels?